With the All-Star festivities in the rearview mirror and a sprint of a second half ahead, it’s time to zoom in on one of the most fascinating races in baseball this year — the Rookie of the Year battle in both leagues.
We’re deep enough into the season for the small-sample-size caveats to fade, and with multiple rookies now securing All-Star nods and everyday roles, things are getting serious.
MLB.com polled 28 experts, asking them to rank their top five rookies in each league based on a 5-4-3-2-1 points system, weighing both what players have done and what they might do the rest of the way.
Let’s break it down. All stats come from Baseball Reference.
American League: Wilson Still Leads, But Kurtz Is Coming Fast
1. Jacob Wilson, A’s (23 first-place votes)
No surprise here. The A’s shortstop remains the clear frontrunner, despite shaky defense. He’s hitting .332 — second in MLB — and leads all rookies in fWAR (2.9). His glove may be a work-in-progress (a league-worst -10 DRS), but his bat-to-ball skills are borderline elite.
Only 28 strikeouts in 87 games? That’s old-school contact hitting in a launch-angle world. Wilson also became the first-ever fan-elected rookie shortstop to start an All-Star Game. That says it all.
2. Nick Kurtz, A’s (3 first-place votes)
Oakland’s double-dip could be historic. Kurtz has gone nuclear since mid-June — 12 home runs in his last 26 games, a 1.122 OPS over that stretch, and the kind of power that invites Aaron Judge comparisons. He’s still chasing a bit too much, but when he connects, it’s loud. If he keeps up this tear, this race isn’t over.
3. Cam Smith, Astros (1 first-place vote)
Acquired in the Kyle Tucker blockbuster, Smith has quietly produced in Houston. A .277/.347/.418 slash with seven homers and 113 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at, and he’s been sneaky good defensively in the outfield with 8 DRS.
4. Carlos Narváez, Red Sox
Once a Yankees farmhand, now a Boston mainstay, Narváez is thriving behind the plate. He’s got the pitch-framing touch, the arm (tied for most CS Above Average with 7), and is hitting .273 with an above-average 118 OPS+. Defense-first catchers aren’t supposed to hit — Narváez is.
5. Roman Anthony, Red Sox
Another Sox rookie with steady upward momentum, Anthony is walking as much as he’s striking out and owns a .371 OBP — third-best among rookies with 100+ plate appearances. His 117 OPS+ suggests there’s still more in the tank.
National League: Misiorowski Takes the Throne, Baldwin Still in Pursuit
1. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (19 first-place votes)
What a leap. A month ago, he had one start. Now? He’s an All-Star and the current leader for NL ROY. Take away his lone bad outing (3 2/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Mets), and Misiorowski’s numbers are video game stuff: 1.23 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 39.2% strikeout rate. The sample is small — only five starts — but the stuff is electric and voters are clearly betting big on the upside.
2. Drake Baldwin, Braves (9 first-place votes)
Baldwin was the leader in the previous two polls, and while he’s cooled slightly (.200 in June), he remains a rock behind the plate with legit power. His early-season surge gave him a cushion, and the bat seems to be rebounding already (8-for-29 in July). This race is far from decided.
3. Agustín Ramírez, Marlins
Another catcher, another Yankees alum, and another thumper. Ramírez may be defense-optional, but he’s a force with the bat — 14 homers and 20 doubles in the first half while slotting in mostly as a DH. He’s the main return from the Jazz Chisholm Jr. deal, and he’s proving to be a valuable one.
4. Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers
Kim is a Swiss-Army knife. He’s hitting .339, stealing bags, and playing all over the field — 2B, CF, even SS. While his power numbers are modest (just nine XBH), his speed and contact-heavy approach have kept him in the mix, especially with Kiké Hernández on the IL.
5. Chad Patrick, Brewers
Quietly consistent. Patrick has a 3.52 ERA over nearly 95 innings and continues to churn out quality starts. He lacks the flash of Misiorowski but provides critical rotation stability — the kind of pitcher every contender needs but no one talks about.
What to Watch in the Second Half
- Can Misiorowski hold off Baldwin now that the league has tape on him?
- Will Wilson’s bat be enough to overcome brutal defensive metrics?
- Is Kurtz ready to overtake his teammate with a second-half power surge?
- Will another name — like Domínguez, Cameron, or someone off the radar — come roaring into the conversation?
This year’s Rookie of the Year races are not set in stone. With only a few months left and just about everyone facing a critical stretch, we’re about to find out who’s built to last — and who’s just getting started.
