The Atlanta Braves starting rotation is set to get a significant upgrade with the return of Spencer Strider.
After missing all of last season recovering from a UCL injury, Strider is gearing up for his comeback in 2025. FanGraphs has already provided some exciting projections, offering a glimpse of what the Braves—and their fans—might expect.
Let’s dive into the timeline and potential impact of his return.
When Will Spencer Strider Be Back?
Using a bit of rough math, FanGraphs’ projection of 19 starts for Strider translates to about 57.57% of a full season for a starting pitcher, typically around 33 starts.
Applying that percentage to a 162-game season, Strider could be back after approximately 68 games, placing his return in early June.
However, the projections aren’t set in stone. MLB insider Ken Rosenthal recently suggested on Foul Territory that Strider might return “sooner rather than later.”
Though not at full throttle, he’s also expected to participate in Spring Training, which hints at a carefully managed reintroduction. The 19-start projection might also reflect cautious scheduling by the Braves, giving Strider extra rest between outings.
The Projections: A Potential Ace Returns
When Strider does return, his numbers suggest he’ll be a powerhouse. FanGraphs projects an 8-5 record, a 3.19 ERA, 146 strikeouts in 110 1/3 innings (an incredible 11.92 K/9), a 1.09 WHIP, a 2.7 WAR, and a 3.06 FIP.
Among Braves starters, he’s expected to rank second in ERA, FIP, and WHIP while leading in strikeouts per nine innings. Only Chris Sale, who’s projected to dominate, edges him out.
These stats make it clear: Strider’s return brings a high-caliber arm to the Braves’ rotation that is already ranked top 5 in the MLB. Even if he takes a few outings to find his rhythm, the potential for him to anchor the rotation and fill Max Fried’s spot is undeniable.
Will the Braves See Peak Strider?
The big question: How consistent will Strider be? It’s possible he’ll struggle in his first few starts, working his way back to form before hitting that projected 3.19 ERA.
Alternatively, he might start strong and face fatigue later. However, there’s always the chance he maintains his form throughout.
Regardless of how it unfolds, Strider’s projected impact is one the Braves will welcome with open arms. Whether he’s shaking off rust or dominating from the get-go, his return will elevate Atlanta’s rotation.
