Roki Sasaki was supposed to be the next great export from Japan — a phenom with triple-digit gas, a wipeout splitter, and the kind of dominance in NPB that made MLB front offices drool.
The Los Angeles Dodgers certainly believed in the 23-year-old right-hander when they inked him and immediately handed him a rotation spot. But nearly 35 innings into his first big-league season, things haven’t gone according to script.
A Rough Welcome to the Show For Sasaki
Let’s get right to it: Sasaki’s numbers aren’t pretty. A 4.72 ERA through 34 1/3 innings. Just 24 strikeouts. Twenty-two walks. That’s nearly a 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio — and for a guy known for pinpoint control in Japan, that’s alarming. His most recent outing against Arizona? Four innings, five earned runs. The command issues are real, and the Dodgers know it.
Manager Dave Roberts isn’t even considering sending Sasaki down. He’s talking about value—the value of learning in real time, against real MLB hitters, on a stage this bright. That may sound like spin, but it’s also a peek into the Dodgers’ long-term thinking. They believe in Sasaki’s ceiling and are willing to weather the storm to get there.
The Fastball Factor
One issue jumping out is the drop in velocity. Sasaki’s fastball, which regularly touched 100 mph in NPB, is averaging 96 mph in the majors.
That’s still above league average (80th percentile per Statcast), but it’s not the weapon it once was. And when you pair that with shaky command, the margin for error shrinks fast. Roberts clarified that if the velocity isn’t elite, the command has to be. And right now, it’s not.
Patience Isn’t Passive — It’s Strategic For the Dodgers
The Dodgers aren’t naïve. They know their starting pitching hasn’t been dominant. They rank 26th in baseball in quality starts, and for a team with World Series ambitions, that’s a red flag. Sasaki was supposed to help stabilize the rotation, not be one of its biggest question marks.
However, L.A. is also built on a long-term vision. They won’t give up on a generational talent after seven starts. They now need progress signs that Sasaki is adjusting, learning, and turning a corner.
What Comes Next?
So where do we go from here? Sasaki still has the raw tools — the fastball, the splitter, the mound presence. But this isn’t NPB. This is the big leagues; the hitters are better, the scouting is deeper, and the pressure is relentless. The Dodgers are hoping that by keeping him in the fire, he learns to handle the heat.
It’s not just about velocity anymore for Sasaki. It’s about adapting, evolving, and proving he belongs. The Dodgers are betting big that he will. The clock is ticking though. And if L.A. wants to be in October shape, they need more than a promise from Roki Sasaki — they need performance.
