If Chris Sale takes home the National League Cy Young Award this offseason, the Atlanta Braves will start 2025 with an award-winning ace already in their rotation. However, the team might not stop there. According to Sports Illustrated’s MLB experts, Will Laws and Nick Selbe, the Braves could look to add a second high-caliber arm in free agency—29-year-old Shane Bieber, a former Cy Young Award winner himself.
Bieber’s career has been nothing short of impressive. He stormed through the American League in 2020 with the Cleveland Indians, notching an 8-1 record, a 1.63 ERA, and an astonishing 122 strikeouts in just 77.1 innings during the pandemic-shortened season. His 2020 performance, including a league-best 0.866 WHIP, earned him the American League Cy Young Award. And while 2020 was a limited-sample season, Bieber had already proven his talent with a strong showing in 2019, where he struck out 259 batters across 214.1 innings, finishing with a 3.28 ERA and 15-8 record.
Bieber’s pitching prowess didn’t stop there—he continued to shine in 2021, earning another All-Star selection and managing a solid 7-4 record with a 3.17 ERA despite some minor injuries. He followed that up in 2022 with a 2.88 ERA over 200 innings, showcasing his ability to consistently keep hitters off balance. But, as with many power pitchers, injuries eventually caught up to him. Bieber battled elbow inflammation in 2023, which led to limited starts and, ultimately, Tommy John surgery.
This is where the Braves’ interest comes into play—and the potential gamble involved. Bieber has a proven track record as a top-tier starter, but Tommy John surgery brings an element of risk. The Braves have experienced this themselves with Spencer Strider, another star in their rotation, who faced his own recovery from the procedure. Atlanta could certainly benefit from adding Bieber’s veteran arm, but the uncertainty surrounding his recovery might impact their interest in a long-term deal.
Salary expectations also weigh heavily on this decision. Will Laws and Nick Selbe predict that Bieber’s surgery and the recent dip in strikeout rate might limit his earning power, possibly making him available at a more team-friendly rate than his record would otherwise suggest? For Atlanta, who could use another ace-caliber arm without a superstar’s financial or contract term commitment, Bieber could be the perfect fit—if the price is right.
Ultimately, the Braves find themselves at a crossroads this offseason. With the option to take on an elite talent like Bieber, who’s battling back from surgery, they must balance ambition with caution. If he regains his pre-surgery form, Bieber could elevate Atlanta’s rotation to new heights, especially in a competitive NL East where pitching depth is essential. Yet, they’ll need to weigh the costs and the potential risks before committing.
According to SI’s list, Bieber is the tenth-best free agent in MLB this offseason. This suggests a real opportunity for Atlanta to make a move if they’re willing to gamble on his recovery. Whether the Braves ultimately bring him into their rotation will depend on their confidence in his return to form and their willingness to pay the price for that high-reward gamble.
