Alex Bregman’s betting on himself again. According to reports, Bregman is opting out of his deal with the Red Sox, walking away from two years and $80 million — and yes, that’s a lot of money, but as always, the devil is in the deferrals. Half that money wasn’t coming until 2035 and beyond, so when you break it down, it’s not quite as outrageous as it sounds on the surface.
Alex Bregman’s Big Bet Comes After a Resurgent 2025
This isn’t some shocking, impulsive decision. This is a calculated move from a guy who knows he just had a very strong season. Bregman, now 31, slashed .273/.360/.462 over 114 games with Boston and clocked in with a 125 wRC+. And he did that after missing seven weeks with a quad injury! That’s a 3.5 fWAR season. That’s top-seven production among big-league third basemen with at least 400 plate appearances. Not just competent — elite.
And the advanced metrics back it all up. Exit velocity: 90.1 mph — a career high. Hard-hit rate? 44.4% — also a career high. Walk rate rebounded back to 10.3%, while the strikeout rate stayed at a lean 14.1%. And here’s the kicker — he’s still getting it done with the glove. Not quite the Gold Glove-level he showed in 2024, but in 2025 he still posted positive metrics across the board. His range is in the 83rd percentile, per Statcast. That’s not someone who’s fading.
No Qualifying Offer Means a Cleaner Market
Financially speaking, the opt-out sets the stage for a potentially massive payday. His current deal was high on AAV but low on cash-in-hand today, with a good chunk deferred into his mid-40s. With Bregman showing he’s healthy, productive, and still versatile on both sides of the ball, he’s probably going to seek — and receive — a real long-term offer this time.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. Under MLB rules, Bregman cannot be hit with a qualifying offer again, thanks to already receiving one from Houston last offseason. That means no draft pick compensation tied to signing him. That changes the entire equation for teams looking for a plug-and-play third baseman.
Boston’s Window Is Open, But the Competition Will Be Fierce
The Red Sox could bring him back. They cleared out Rafael Devers in that shocking midseason trade with the Giants, so the hot corner isn’t exactly locked up. The club didn’t go over the luxury tax in 2024, but they’re hovering above the 2025 threshold now. Still, with $12.5M from Steven Matz coming off the books, and possible option declines on Giolito and Hendriks, there’s room to move if Boston wants him back.
But let’s not pretend Bregman will be short on suitors. The Tigers and Cubs were sniffing around last winter. The Cubs might be content with Matt Shaw, who flashed real potential, but Detroit? Their third basemen were bottom-five offensively in all of baseball — a 76 wRC+ is just… not cutting it.
And let’s be honest — if Bregman’s reps smell a long-term offer with real guaranteed dollars and no deferrals, he’s gone. The Red Sox have options — Marcelo Mayer could get a shot, or they could pivot to veterans like Suarez or Muncy — but none bring the combo of offense, defense, and postseason pedigree Bregman delivers.
The question now isn’t should Bregman opt out — he already did. The question is: Which team is ready to make him their franchise third baseman for the next five or six years?
