This Nolan Arenado trade saga is getting more and more tangled by the day. Let’s break it down piece by piece because a lot is going on here, and some of it is straight out of a drama series.
First off, the St. Louis Cardinals are actively shopping their star third baseman, Nolan Arenado, this offseason. No big shocker there — they’re planning for 2025 to be a “reset year” (translation: we’re rebuilding).
Arenado, who turns 34 in March, could potentially land with a contender while St. Louis frees up some money and opens the door for younger guys like Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker. Makes sense on paper, right?
Nolan Arenado’s Full No-Trade Clause
But here’s the twist — Arenado has a full no-trade clause. That means he gets to call the shots on where he goes. And per the latest intel from MLB.com and The Athletic, the Cards were in talks to send Arenado to the Houston Astros.
A solid idea, considering Houston needs a long-term plan for third base, especially with Alex Bregman’s future looking uncertain. But Arenado? He shut it down. Nope, not waiving that no-trade clause for the Astros. And that throws a big wrench into the gears.
Why Houston, though? Why say no to a club that’s been a powerhouse for the past decade? The Astros might be missing Kyle Tucker now (traded to the Cubs), but they’re still all-in on competing in 2025. The team’s winning pedigree is hard to argue with. Geography? The sign-stealing scandal?
What is the messy history between the Cardinals and Astros over that infamous data breach? Who knows — all guesses at this point. Reports suggest Arenado wants more time to think it over, so this might not be completely off the table, but it’s a dead end for now.
Money Is Another Layer Here
Arenado’s set to make $74 million over the next three years, though $10 million of that is being picked up by the Rockies (remember that deal that got him to St. Louis in the first place?). With deferrals, the actual present-day value comes out to around $60 million. The Cardinals were reportedly ready to eat $15-20 million of that.
In other words, Houston would’ve been on the hook for about $40-45 million. That’s manageable, and it would’ve helped the Astros stay under the competitive balance tax threshold, which is sitting at $241 million for 2025.
So where does that leave everyone now?
For the Astros, Plan A — getting Arenado — is currently iced. They might need to pivot and try to mend fences with Bregman. But remember, Bregman reportedly wants a $200 million deal, and the Astros’ last offer was $156 million over six years.
That’s a huge gap. If not Bregman, Houston might target a first baseman like Christian Walker or maybe another third baseman from somewhere else.
Arenado Approves Select Teams
The Cardinals could explore trades with other teams on Arenado’s approved list — reportedly the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox. These are all potential landing spots, but the clock’s ticking.
And let’s not ignore Arenado’s recent performance. He was phenomenal in 2022, with 30 home runs, a .293 average, and elite defense — good for 7.2 wins above replacement (WAR).
But the past two seasons? A bit of a decline. He’s been hitting .269 with less pop and just above-average offense. His defense is still gold-glove caliber, but it’s a noticeable drop.
Playing in Houston with those inviting Crawford Boxes could theoretically help him boost those power numbers. But for that to happen, he’s gotta want it.
So now, it’s a waiting game. Do the Astros sweeten the deal somehow? Does Arenado reconsider? Or do both teams move on to other targets before the offseason clock runs out?
One thing’s for sure — this offseason rollercoaster isn’t slowing down anytime soon.
