Shane Bieber’s decision to pick up his $16 million option and stay with the Toronto Blue Jays isn’t just surprising, it’s quietly seismic.
A Midseason Gamble That Paid Off
After being flipped from Cleveland at the 2025 trade deadline, Bieber returned to a major league mound after more than a year away and immediately resumed mid-rotation duties with minimal rust. A 3.57 ERA across seven starts, plus strong command metrics—23.3% strikeout rate against a tidy 4.4% walk rate—signaled that the elbow was healthy, the velocity was back (topping 92.6 mph on the four-seamer), and the instincts were still sharp.
Then came the postseason: nearly 19 innings of solid work and just enough vulnerability, three homers, including the heartbreaker to Will Smith, just to remind everyone this wasn’t vintage 2020 Bieber. But it was more than enough to merit strong free-agent interest.
Leaving Millions on the Table, For Now
The choice to skip free agency, especially in a year where the pitching market is thin, raises eyebrows. Bieber is only 30 and, even without recapturing ace form, would’ve drawn substantial attention as a healthy, proven mid-rotation arm. A two- or three-year deal with an opt-out was well within reach. And while a nine-figure payday might have been optimistic, it certainly wasn’t unrealistic.
The $12 million net gain from accepting the option instead of the buyout is below market value for his profile. Comparisons like Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton, and even Michael Lorenzen show that Bieber could’ve easily eclipsed that figure—especially if willing to bet on himself with a short-term deal.
Blue Jays Unexpected Offseason Advantage
Whatever the motive, Bieber’s move is a coup for the Blue Jays. With Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt headed to free agency and Bo Bichette potentially commanding a deal north of $200 million, Bieber’s return offers rare cost certainty and a dependable rotation piece to pair with Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos.
Toronto still needs at least one more starter and has bullpen upgrades to consider, but this unexpected rotation stability gives the front office real options. If extension talks aren’t already in motion, they likely will be soon.
For now, Bieber’s calculated stay could be the most important move of the Jays’ offseason—and it didn’t cost them a dime more than they already committed.
