The Shocking Infield Collapse
The biggest story in this Wild Card Series isn’t the star power or the playoff history. It is a single, ugly number that tells the whole tale of the 2026 Atlanta Braves. FanGraphs reported that Atlanta received 5.6 WAR from second base, third base and shortstop this season , down from 16.0 WAR from those same three positions in 2002. This isn’t a small dip. It is a complete structural failure that the team must fix in three games or go home.
Ozzie Albies started hot but hit .216/.274/.354 after April. For the fifth consecutive year, Austin Riley observed his OPS decline. Over the winter, Ha-Seong Kim, who signed a one-year, $20 million deal, injured his middle finger by slipping on ice. He needed 51 games to rack up -1.2 WAR this year. These are the names on the roster, but the stats show a team that lost its way. In 2022, the Braves generated 16.0 WAR from the positions of second base, third base, and shortstop. This season, it is a different story.
Rotation Woes and Injury Chaos
The pitching staff faced similar chaos. The Braves basically lost an entire rotation’s worth of pitchers due to injury. Following Chris Sale and Grant Holmes, the team was forced to largely identify their starters spontaneously. A number of the high-profile hitters within the lineup faced difficulties. Significantly more effort was needed by the squad to navigate the 162-game campaign. They are no longer the dominant force that secured 101 wins in 2022 and 104 wins in 2023.
The Philadelphia Phillies followed a winding and extremely dangerous path to clinch the third and final wild-card spot. For multiple days, they hovered near securing a playoff berth. A poorly timed losing streak combined with a Diamondbacks surge created a dramatic Game 162. Because the D-backs held the tiebreaker against the Phillies, no outcome could be taken for granted. Ultimately, the Phillies earned their spot via a victory against the Rays, yet they needed to deploy co-ace Zack Wheeler to achieve it.
The Wild Card Gamble
The format is a best-of-three series with the higher seed hosting every game. All four series get underway on Tuesday. The wild card round is short, meaning randomness plays a huge role. To a degree unlike other major sports, Baseball relies structurally on randomness. Expectations are defied with regularity in these short sprints.
Jesus Luzardo will open Game 1, Christopher Sanchez is lined up for Game 2 on regular rest, and Aaron Nola is preparing to start Game 3 if necessary. Recently activated from the injured list, Luzardo pitched a perfect relief inning using only four pitches on Sunday. Since Sept. 7, he has not started a game, meaning he remains somewhat of an unknown. Should a Game 3 occur, will Mattingly call upon Wheeler with short rest? Alternatively, does he choose Aaron Nola, who has performed better recently but remains far below the output of the Phillies’ top three pitchers?
The ZiPS game-by-game postseason probabilities are now live. This model differs significantly from typical projections observed throughout the regular season. It focuses more on the individual trees themselves rather than the forest. FanGraphs offers a few different projection tools for the postseason. The ZiPS tool projects game results and series odds. These projections will see some shifts as team rosters and starting pitchers firm up.
The Brewers seemingly mastering baseball and the Dodgers securing 100 wins caused the Braves to lose a first-round bye. Compared to the prior year’s fourth-place division finish marked by a 76-86 record, it must still feel much better. But the gap between a bye and a wild card is huge. The Phillies narrowly escaped an embarrassing collapse that nearly eliminated them from the playoffs entirely. Now these two divisional rivals have three games to attempt ruining the other team’s season.
