Let’s get into the story of the Braves rotation. To be specific, the latest rookie sensation Spencer Schwellenbach. If you haven’t been paying attention, this guy has been an absolute anchor for Atlanta, and his debut has flipped the script on what the Braves pitching staff looks like heading into the future. And now the big question is, should Atlanta extend him right now to lock down his promising future?
First things first, this rotation has been lights out. Atlanta’s pitching staff leads the league with a 3.49 ERA which is no small feat. You’ve got Cy Young front-runner Chris Sale dealing like it’s 2018 and a solid trio of Fried, Morton, and Lopez bringing the heat. But the real cherry on top has been Schwellenbach. This kid stepped in back in late May and hasn’t looked back, nailing down the fifth spot and delivering some absolute gems, including last night’s showcase against the Dodgers.
Now, take a look at the numbers: a 3.73 ERA on the season. Not bad, right? But it gets better when you peek under the hood — a 3.35 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, and a sparkling 21.9 K-BB%. Oh, and let’s not forget, he’s racked up 2.0 fWAR in just over 100 innings. That’s impressive stuff from a rookie.
It’s not just about those standard stats though. When you dig into the advanced metrics, and Schwellenbach really shines. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate, 94th in walk rate, and 88th in barrel rate. In plain English, he makes batters swing and miss, doesn’t give away free passes, and limits hard hits. And the cherry on top? The guy has a six-pitch arsenal. That kind of diversity in pitches is a luxury most rookies don’t have.
And here’s the kicker — he’s doing all this against top-tier competition. That performance against the Dodgers? That’s not just a lucky night; it’s a sign he can go toe-to-toe with the best. Atlanta has a history of investing in guys they believe in, and it’s paid off. Remember Spencer Strider’s six-year, $75 million extension back in his rookie season? Now, Schwellenbach might not be on that exact level just yet, but you’d be hard-pressed to argue he isn’t close.
So, what’s next? It’s a smart move to lock in a guy like this, especially with Max Fried’s free agency on the horizon and Charlie Morton likely nearing retirement. The Braves need reliable arms for the future, and Schwellenbach looks like the real deal. Securing him now could set the rotation up for years to come.
The ball’s in Alex Anthopoulos’ court now. Does he pull the trigger and secure Schwellenbach for the long haul, or do the Braves roll the dice and wait? The answer might just shape the future of their rotation.
