The Braves’ pitching staff took a brutal, if expected, blow this week as the team confirmed that 22-year-old right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver has undergone Tommy John surgery. The announcement came Monday via the club’s official X account, confirming what many feared but hoped might be avoided.
There won’t be any quick return. There won’t be any late-season comeback. Smith-Shawver is out for the rest of 2025—and the recovery timeline now stretches well into next season.
Tommy John, Not Internal Brace
The real suspense leading up to the surgery wasn’t about whether he’d be out for the year. It was how long he might be out after. Before going under the knife, there was still a glimmer of hope that Smith-Shawver might be a candidate for the less invasive internal brace procedure, which typically allows pitchers to return in under 12 months.
But when orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister opened up the elbow, the verdict was clear: full Tommy John reconstruction was necessary. That shifts the timeline back significantly—think June 2026, at the earliest.
It’s a blow not only to Smith-Shawver but also to a Braves rotation that’s already felt thinner than usual in 2025. His loss is both a present and future setback for a team trying to regain its footing in the NL East.
A Glimmer of Recovery Optimism
Here’s the silver lining, if there is one: Tommy John surgery has become one of the most reliable procedures in professional sports. Countless arms have come back, many throwing as well—if not better—than before. So, while Smith-Shawver’s climb back will be long and grueling, the precedent for a full recovery is there.
Braves fans, though, have every right to feel some lingering nervousness—especially given Spencer Strider’s recovery journey. Strider opted for the internal brace route last year, and while he did make it back in under 12 months and is pitching again, he’s still not quite Strider. His fastball, which averaged 97.2 mph, is down to 95.1 mph in 2025. That velocity dip has been more than just cosmetic—it’s also shown up in the box score.
If anything, Smith-Shawver needing the full Tommy John might spare him that uncertain in-between phase. It’s the longer road but often the sturdier one.
A Hole in Braves Rotation Left Behind
Before the injury, Smith-Shawver was putting together a solid campaign. A 3-2 record, 1.421 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts over 44.1 innings in nine starts—not lights-out numbers, but enough to suggest real growth from one of Atlanta’s youngest arms. The command still needed refining, but the stuff was there.
Now, the Braves will have to wait. And so will Smith-Shawver. But if he puts in the work—and follows the footsteps of the many aces who’ve come back stronger—his future still burns bright.
