Three pitches changed everything for Chicago. The Cubs jumped to an early 3–0 lead, then unraveled behind a trio of costly mistakes as the Brewers stormed back for a 7–3 win Monday night at American Family Field, taking a 2–0 lead in the National League Division Series.
Hot Start, Fast Collapse
Chicago came out swinging against Milwaukee’s opener Aaron Ashby. Nico Hoerner singled, Kyle Tucker walked, and Seiya Suzuki unloaded a 440-foot blast to left-center to stake the Cubs to a 3–0 lead before an out was recorded.
But that early momentum didn’t last. In the bottom half, Shota Imanaga retired the first two batters before William Contreras and Christian Yelich notched back-to-back singles. That brought up Andrew Vaughn, who worked a full count before punishing Imanaga’s first mistake of the night — an 84-mph sweeper that caught too much of the plate. Vaughn turned on it, sending it 382 feet into the left-field seats at 109.2 mph off the bat to tie the game 3–3.
Vaughn slugged .455 on breaking balls this season, with 20 of his 22 home runs pulled. Pitching him soft and in was a gamble, and the Cubs paid for it.
Brewers Contreras Capitalizes Again
Imanaga regrouped to set down six straight hitters before another missed spot came back to haunt him.
With two outs in the third, Contreras stepped in. After mixing splitters early in the count, Imanaga tried to sneak a 91-mph fastball inside — and missed. Contreras hammered it 411 feet to left for a no-doubt solo shot, leaving his bat at 107.6 mph.
It was another case of ignoring the scouting report. Contreras posted a .448 expected slugging on fastballs this season and rarely went the other way — just 16 of his 45 extra-base hits were to the opposite field. Belt-high, inside, and to a pull hitter? The Brewers’ catcher made him pay.
Palencia’s Costly Sequence
Daniel Palencia took over in the third, but the bullpen couldn’t stop the bleeding. The 25-year-old right-hander, who had shined in the Wild Card round, recorded four quick outs before hitting Caleb Durbin and surrendering a single to Joey Ortiz — one of the weakest bats in Milwaukee’s lineup.
That brought up 21-year-old phenom Jackson Chourio, who fouled off two 101-mph heaters. Confident in his velocity, Palencia doubled down with a third straight fastball — and paid dearly. Chourio crushed it 419 feet to dead center, a three-run homer that put the Brewers up 7–3.
Palencia had options. A slider or an off-speed pitch could have changed the sequence. Instead, he challenged Chourio with another straight fastball over the heart of the plate. The rookie didn’t miss.
Milwaukee Brewers Close the Door
From there, the Brewers’ bullpen took control. Chicago managed only one baserunner over the final five innings as Milwaukee’s relievers combined for six scoreless frames.
Three mistakes, three home runs, seven runs — and a commanding 2–0 series edge for the Brewers.
Now the Cubs head home to Wrigley Field on the brink, needing to rediscover the sharpness that carried them through September — before their season slips away for good.
