Braves Country — especially those of you clutching your pearls every time Matt Olson steps up to the plate. I get it. You remember the monster season in 2023. Fifty-four bombs, nearly 140 RBIs, an OPS flirting with 1.000 — that was peak Olson. A force of nature.
But, I’m here to tell you: Matt Olson is heating up, and whether the skeptics like it or not, the numbers are starting to sing the same tune.
The Recent Surge: Quiet but Dangerous
I’m not saying we’re reliving 2023, but let’s look at what the man’s been doing lately. Over the past 20 games, Olson’s batting .263 — solid. He’s slugging .553 — even better. And that OPS? A spicy .878.
Toss in six home runs and 11 RBIs in that stretch, and you’ve got a guy who’s quietly putting together a season that, extrapolated, lands him at 44 home runs and 94 RBIs. That’s not just decent — that’s middle-of-the-lineup firepower.
Under the Hood: Elite Metrics, Elite Vision
Still not convinced? Let’s talk about the stuff the analytics heads love — the advanced metrics. Olson’s barrel rate? Career high at 18.6%. Hard-hit rate? A scorching 56.6%. Exit velocity? An elite 94.7 MPH. That puts him in the top 2% and 4% in all of Major League Baseball. So yeah, he’s not just hitting the ball — he’s punishing it.
And the plate discipline? Right on track. Olson’s walk rate is back up to 14.4%, just like in 2023, and his strikeout rate has even dipped slightly — down to 23.1%. The man is making smarter swings and seeing the ball better than ever.
The Luck Factor: Blame the Baseball Gods
So what gives? Why aren’t the results popping off the stat sheet the way they used to? One word, folks: luck. His BABIP — that’s batting average on balls in play — is down. Like, down. In 2023, it was .302. This year? .269. That’s not a skill problem; it’s the baseball gods playing favorites somewhere else.
But here’s the kicker: Olson’s expected stats — the ones that strip away luck — are right in line with last year. His xAVG is .254 (2023 was .264) and xSLG is .548 (2023 was .558). So he’s doing the same thing he did when he was racking up accolades — he’s just not catching the same breaks.
So yeah, the West Coast might have a flashy first baseman making headlines, but down here in Atlanta, Matt Olson is still bringing the thunder. Maybe the box scores don’t shout it out loud yet, but the metrics don’t lie — Olson is locked in. And if the luck tide turns? Braves Country better buckle up.
