The 2019 MLB draft arrived with the fanfare of a blockbuster movie premiere, hyped as potentially generational. Five years later, you can finally separate the substance from the sizzle. This class has produced legitimate stars at the top, but like a Netflix series that starts strong before meandering through later episodes, the depth hasn’t quite matched the initial excitement.
What makes this draft particularly fascinating isn’t just who succeeded, but how wildly expectations diverged from reality as teams ventured beyond the consensus top picks.
1. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (A+)
Carroll’s selection at 15th overall now looks like finding a vintage Rolex at a garage sale. The diminutive outfielder has outperformed nearly every player selected ahead of him, culminating in a Rookie of the Year campaign that helped propel Arizona to the World Series.
His 2023 season was a masterclass in all-around excellence—a .285/.362/.506 slash line with 25 HR and 54 SB. His elite speed ranks among baseball’s best, turning routine doubles into triples and making him a constant threat on the basepaths. Arizona’s decision to sign Carroll to an eight-year extension before he established himself now looks like brilliant foresight.
2. Kody Hoese, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers (F)
Hoese’s professional career has been as disappointing as a movie sequel that completely misunderstands what made the original special. After a collegiate breakout at Tulane, his bat has gone silent in professional baseball, posting a career .226/.290/.350 minor league slash line.
The Dodgers’ player development system, widely regarded as among baseball’s best, hasn’t been able to recapture the swing that made Hoese a first-round selection. His power has evaporated, and his approach has regressed rather than progressed. At 26 and still struggling in the upper minors, Hoese’s prospects of becoming an impact major leaguer have faded significantly.
3. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (C+)
Lodolo’s career has resembled a roller coaster that spends more time in maintenance than thrilling riders. When healthy, his stuff jumps off the screen—a mid-90s fastball with movement, a wipeout breaking ball, and advanced command for a young lefty.
Health, however, has been elusive. After a promising rookie campaign (3.66 ERA in 103.1 innings), Lodolo made just seven starts in 2023 before a stress reaction in his tibia ended his season. The Reds’ pitching development has produced mixed results, but Lodolo represents their best chance at developing a homegrown ace since Johnny Cueto.
4. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles (A+)
The Orioles’ selection of Rutschman first overall looks like finding a winning lottery ticket in your winter coat pocket. He’s transformed from prospect to cornerstone faster than you can say “Baltimore renaissance.”
Rutschman hasn’t just met expectations—he’s shattered them. His 5.3 WAR in 2023 placed him among baseball’s elite, regardless of position. His defensive metrics sparkle like a freshly waxed classic car, with framing skills that turn borderline pitches into strikes. For fantasy managers, Rutschman represents that rare catching unicorn—durability combined with elite production.
5. Hunter Bishop, OF, San Francisco Giants (F)
Bishop’s professional career has been the developmental equivalent of a GPS constantly recalculating but never finding the destination. The toolsy outfielder has struggled with injuries and performance, failing to advance beyond Double-A despite being drafted five years ago.
His career .219 minor league batting average illustrates the disconnect between his physical tools and in-game production. The power-speed combination that made him an enticing prospect has flashed occasionally but never consistently enough to warrant promotion. At 26, time is running short for Bishop to transform from prospect to contributor.
6. Tyler Soderstrom, C, Oakland Athletics (C-)
Soderstrom’s development has proceeded like construction on a house during a supply shortage—steady progress interrupted by unexpected delays. The switch-hitting catcher has shown intriguing offensive potential but struggled to establish himself defensively behind the plate.
His bat has translated better than expected to professional baseball, posting solid numbers in the minor leagues with developing power from both sides of the plate. However, his future position remains uncertain as defensive limitations may force a move to first base or designated hitter. Oakland’s rebuilding timeline provides patience for his development, but questions about his long-term value persist without a defensive home.
7. Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers (B)
Greene’s career has followed the trajectory of a promising TV show that keeps getting interrupted by production delays. When healthy, he’s shown the five-tool potential that made him the fifth overall selection, but injuries have repeatedly stalled his momentum. His 2023 campaign offered the clearest glimpse of his ceiling—a .288/.349/.447 slash line with 11 HR and 9 SB in just 99 games. His sweet left-handed swing generates natural loft, and his defensive instincts in center field compensate for average straight-line speed. The Tigers‘ rebuilding timeline aligns perfectly with Greene’s development.
8. Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (C)
Manoah’s career trajectory resembles a stock that skyrocketed before crashing dramatically. After a dominant 2022 campaign that resulted in a third-place Cy Young finish (16-7, 2.24 ERA), his 2023 collapse (3-9, 5.87 ERA) left analysts and fans equally baffled.
His mechanics abandoned him like fair-weather friends, leading to career-worst walk rates (6.0 BB/9) and diminished effectiveness across all pitches. What makes Manoah’s situation particularly fascinating is that his underlying physical tools remain impressive. For fantasy managers, Manoah represents the ultimate high-risk, high-reward proposition. His ceiling remains ace-level, but his floor dropped through the basement.
9. Bryson Stott, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (B)
Stott’s development has followed a steady upward trajectory, like a reliable investment that grows modestly but consistently. After a challenging rookie season, he established himself as Philadelphia’s second baseman in 2023, posting a .276/.331/.429 slash line with 15 HR and 31 SB.
What makes Stott valuable is his well-rounded skill set. He doesn’t possess one standout tool but does everything well enough to contribute in multiple ways. His left-handed swing produces line drives to all fields, and his approach improved significantly in his sophomore season. For the Phillies, Stott represents excellent value at the 14th pick.
10. JJ Bleday, OF, Miami Marlins (D+)
Bleday’s professional journey has been rockier than a mountain hiking trail. The Vanderbilt star who dominated college baseball has struggled to translate his skills to the major league level, posting a career .203/.304/.360 slash line across parts of two seasons.
His trade to Oakland in exchange for reliever AJ Puk signaled Miami’s diminished confidence in his development. While his power has occasionally surfaced (20 HR in 2023), contact issues have prevented him from becoming the complete hitter scouts projected. For fantasy managers, Bleday remains a wait-and-see proposition with limited appeal outside deeper leagues.
11. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals (A)
After a promising but flawed rookie campaign, Witt’s 2023 explosion resembled a tech startup finally figuring out its business model and going public. His 30/30 season (30 HR, 49 SB) with a .276/.319/.495 slash line announced his arrival as a legitimate superstar.
Witt’s defensive improvements have been particularly noteworthy. Once questioned about his ability to stick at shortstop, he’s now silenced critics with above-average metrics across the board. Kansas City’s decision to lock him up with an 11-year, $288.7 million contract extension looks increasingly brilliant.
12. Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets (D+)
Baty’s major league experience has resembled someone learning to drive a stick shift—moments of smooth operation interrupted by grinding gears. His powerful left-handed swing has produced impressive exit velocities but hasn’t translated to consistent production.
His .212/.282/.321 slash line across parts of two seasons illustrates the gap between his raw tools and refined skills. Pitch recognition, particularly against breaking balls, remains a work in progress. The Mets’ organizational philosophy has shifted multiple times during Baty’s development, creating challenging conditions. At 24, Baty still has time to develop into the middle-of-the-order bat New York envisioned.
13. CJ Abrams, SS, San Diego Padres (B-)
Abrams’ career has taken more unexpected turns than a mystery novel. Drafted by San Diego, he became a centerpiece in the Juan Soto blockbuster trade before establishing himself as Washington’s shortstop of the future.
His 2023 performance showed why teams coveted him, posting a .245/.302/.412 line with 18 HR and 47 stolen bases. His elite speed ranks among baseball’s best, turning routine grounders into adventures for infielders. The power development has been a pleasant surprise, exceeding many pre-draft projections. For fantasy managers, his stolen base potential alone makes him valuable.
14. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers (B+)
Jung’s development timeline was delayed by injuries, but his 2023 emergence resembled a plot twist that changes everything you thought about the story. His 23 home runs and solid defense at third base helped propel Texas to a World Series championship.
What makes Jung special is his ability to make adjustments. After struggling with breaking balls early in his career, he’s improved his recognition and approach, allowing his natural power to play in games. For the Rangers, Jung represents excellent value at the eighth pick. His ceiling might not match some elite names drafted ahead of him, but his floor appears higher.
15. Keoni Cavaco, SS, Minnesota Twins (F)
Cavaco’s selection represented a classic high-risk, high-reward draft strategy that has produced minimal returns. The toolsy shortstop has struggled mightily in professional baseball, posting a career .212/.280/.330 slash line while failing to advance beyond High-A despite being drafted five years ago.
His swing mechanics have required constant tinkering, preventing him from developing the consistency needed to succeed against advanced pitching. His approach remains raw, with high strikeout rates limiting his ability to utilize his natural athleticism. For Minnesota, Cavaco represents a significant miss in a draft where several impact players were selected after him.
16. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox (C-)
Vaughn’s career thus far resembles a streaming service that keeps promising better content next season but never quite delivers. The former Golden Spikes Award winner has shown flashes of his collegiate brilliance but hasn’t sustained it over full MLB seasons.
His defensive limitations have forced positional juggling that would make a chess master dizzy. The power numbers (20 HR in 2023) remain underwhelming for a player selected third overall. The White Sox’s organizational chaos hasn’t helped his development, creating a challenging environment for young talent. Vaughn still has time to elevate his performance.
