In a season where not much has gone according to plan for the Atlanta Braves, Spencer Schwellenbach has emerged as a rare constant—a breakout ace quietly inserting himself into the NL Cy Young conversation.
His performance isn’t just a hot streak or an overachieving sophomore moment. Schwellenbach is putting together one of the most well-rounded, efficient, and downright impressive seasons in the National League.
The Braves have leaned on a strong rotation for years. Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Chris Sale have all taken turns leading the charge. With Sale now sidelined, Strider still finding his footing after elbow surgery, and the rest of the rotation dealing with inconsistency, Schwellenbach is carrying the torch in 2025.
A New Ace in Atlanta?
Through 96 2/3 innings, Schwellenbach owns a 3.26 ERA, with his most recent eight-start stretch showing Cy Young-level dominance:
- 2.77 ERA over 55 1/3 innings
- An 11-strikeout performance against the Red Sox—on his birthday
- A complete-game victory over the Brewers that felt like a career-defining moment
Those numbers alone would warrant attention. But what makes Schwellenbach’s case even more compelling is what’s happening under the hood.
He’s in the 96th percentile in walk rate (4.2%) and 94th percentile in chase rate (34.5%). That means he’s not just attacking the zone—he’s owning it. He’s limiting free passes, forcing hitters to expand, and keeping pitch counts manageable. In today’s data-driven MLB, those are elite traits, and Schwellenbach is quietly excelling at all of them.
Steady in a Chaotic Braves Season
The timing couldn’t be more critical. The Braves are 35–41 and still hanging around the Wild Card race, but with Chris Sale now on the IL due to a rib injury, the need for dependable starting pitching is more urgent than ever. Grant Holmes has shown flashes but remains inconsistent, and while Strider is working his way back, he’s not quite the dominant force Atlanta fans remember—yet.
Schwellenbach has filled the void with an approach that looks like it was built for October, even if Atlanta might not get there. His 1.01 WHIP ranks third-best in the NL, and his walk rate is second-best. The only stat holding him back from mainstream attention is his win-loss record—but in this age, we know better than to use that as a primary measuring stick.
Even His “Bad” Days Are Pretty Good
Case in point is his last outing against the Mets. Schwellenbach allowed four earned runs in seven innings—technically a season “low point,” but still a quality start by most standards. It was just the second time in 2025 he’d allowed more than three earned runs in a game. That tells you everything about his consistency.
That consistency has been quietly propping up a Braves team that is still searching for its identity. Atlanta’s 3.64 team ERA ranks fourth in the NL, and Schwellenbach is a major reason why.
What’s Next For Schwellenbach?
If the Braves manage to turn things around and surge into the playoff picture, Schwellenbach’s name will be front and center. If they fall short, his performance may go underappreciated in the broader national spotlight—but make no mistake, he’s arrived.
The Braves may not know exactly where this season is headed, but they’ve found their next frontline starter. And if Spencer Schwellenbach keeps this up, he might not just be Atlanta’s best pitcher—he could be the best in the league.
