The Atlanta Braves are walking into PNC Park this weekend with many reasons to feel good, and it all starts with the arms they won’t see. That’s right: no Paul Skenes, no Mitch Keller. You almost want to send the baseball gods a thank-you card for that scheduling break.
Sure, the Pirates haven’t exactly been dominant even with those two on the mound—just 5-11 in their starts—but let’s be honest, anytime you can avoid two of the toughest hurlers in a rotation, you take that and run.
The Pirates: Pitching Like Clockwork, Hitting Like a Clogged Drain
Let’s talk pitching, as the Pirates’ staff has been average. That’s not shade, it’s the numbers talking. A 4.31 ERA and 4.01 FIP for the group, with their ERA- and FIP- floating right around 100. This is as “middle of the pack” as you can get. There’s no clear weak link, but nobody is carrying the torch and lighting up radar guns either.
Offense has looked rough. Outside of Oneil Cruz continuing to flash his potential, Joey Bart being a pleasant surprise, and Andrew McCutchen doing his best nostalgic 2013 impression, the Pirates’ bats have been basically silent.
Bryan Reynolds has been underwhelming. Ke’Bryan Hayes has gone full glove-first. Kiner-Falefa and Valdez? Let’s just say pitchers sleep just fine the night before facing them. It’s a lineup that struggles to scare, let alone scratch across runs.
Matchup Breakdown – Friday: Elder vs. Falter
This one could be a coin flip. Bryce Elder is a “just-hold-it-together” guy, and that’s often enough. His solid outing against the Dodgers showed he can survive against top talent. He did well against the Pirates last year, though most of those batters won’t be in the lineup this time around.
Bailey Falter, meanwhile, has been feast or famine. The Braves will hope it’s famine time, though they do remember him giving them fits last year. Revenge game?
Matchup Breakdown – Saturday: Smith-Shawver vs. Heaney
AJ Smith-Shawver just delivered the best outing of his young career—eight innings of one-hit, shutout ball. He’s throwing confidently, which could be a nightmare for a weak Pirates offense.
Heaney started strong this year, but his past two starts have been a mess. His slider’s getting smashed, and the Braves may be just the team to take advantage of that.
Matchup Breakdown – Sunday: Sale vs. Mlodzinski
This is the one where Atlanta fans should start clearing space in the win column. Chris Sale is locked in right now—10 Ks in his last outing, zero runs allowed, and finally syncing good pitching with a Braves win.
Mlodzinski, on the other hand, has yet to make it past five innings in any start. His stuff is diverse but underwhelming, and if the Braves are even halfway awake, this could turn into a runaway.
Good Timing For the Braves Against The Pirates
The Pirates are scrappy, but they’re also shallow. The Braves are catching them at the right time, dodging their best arms, and walking into a weekend where they should handle business. If the bats show up and the arms keep doing their jobs, this has all the makings of a series sweep.
