The MLB Draft is one of the great exercises in projection. Every year, teams spend valuable picks and millions of dollars trying to determine which high school and college stars will eventually become Major League players. Before many of these prospects have played a single professional inning, fans are already hearing phrases like “can’t-miss prospect” and “insanely high ceiling.”
Sometimes the scouts get it exactly right. Chipper Jones went first overall and became a Hall of Famer. Ken Griffey Jr. did the same. But there are no guarantees when teams are drafting players who may still be years away from the Major Leagues.
Some highly touted prospects get hurt. Others struggle against professional competition. Some are rushed through the minor leagues before they are ready. And a select few are remembered primarily for the enormous gap between what everyone expected and what actually happened.
One notable omission from this list is Matt Bush. The first overall pick in 2004 had serious off-the-field problems that derailed his career and made him an obvious candidate for a list like this. But Bush eventually reached the Major Leagues as a pitcher in 2016 and was still pitching in the majors at age 36 in 2022. Considering everything that happened along the way, his story ultimately looks more like an improbable comeback than a straightforward draft bust.
That said, here are my 10 biggest MLB Draft busts of all time, starting with a pitcher whose reputation grew enormous before most baseball fans ever saw him throw a professional pitch.
#10 Todd Van Poppel, Pitcher
Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, information about amateur prospects wasn’t available at the touch of a button. Most fans didn’t know much about newly drafted high school players.
Todd Van Poppel was different.
The Arlington, Texas, pitching phenom posted a 0.97 ERA with 170 strikeouts during his final high school season. His reputation grew so large that even young fans knew the name before he established himself professionally. After the Oakland Athletics drafted him in the first round in 1990, expectations soared.
Oakland had just won the 1989 World Series. Van Poppel was supposed to become another major piece of what fans imagined could be a dynasty.
His development, however, moved unusually fast. His contract was structured as a Major League deal that limited how long Oakland could keep him in the minors. After only eight appearances in Single-A, he was moved to Double-A. Following just 24 appearances there, and despite a 6-13 record, he reached Oakland.
His lone Major League start in 1991 was ugly: he allowed five runs on seven hits. Injuries then cost him much of 1992.
Van Poppel spent five seasons with Oakland and posted a 5.75 ERA. Things worsened after he joined Detroit, where he posted a 11.39 ERA across nine starts in 1996.
Yet Van Poppel did manage something several players on this list never accomplished: longevity. He reinvented himself as a reliever and pitched for the Cubs, Rangers, Reds and Pirates before finishing an 11-year Major League career.
That longevity keeps him at No. 10. But compared with the extraordinary expectations surrounding him as a teenager, Van Poppel’s Major League career never came close to what baseball anticipated.
#9 Bryan Bullington, Pitcher
The Pittsburgh Pirates owned the first overall selection in the 2002 MLB Draft and found a relatively safe choice.
Bryan Bullington was a 6-foot-5, 225-pound pitcher from Ball State who had set a school strikeout record while leading his conference in victories and ERA. Unlike a teenage prospect who required considerable projection, Bullington was already 21 and had enjoyed tremendous success in college.
One concern remained: Ball State didn’t play in one of college baseball’s premier conferences. Even so, Bullington appeared safer than some of the high school players available, including Zack Greinke and Prince Fielder.
That assessment did not age well.
Bullington had been on the radar for years. As a high school pitcher, he went 15-0 in 1999 and threw a one-hitter in the state championship game. Kansas City drafted him in the 37th round, but he chose college instead.
By 2002, he was considered one of America’s best collegiate pitchers. Pittsburgh selected him first overall, and Bullington landed on Top 100 prospect lists before he’d even appeared in a professional game.
Initially, the hype seemed justified.
He went 5-1 with a 1.39 ERA for the Class-A Hickory Crawdads. By 2004, he was a Double-A All-Star and threw a scoreless inning in the Futures Game at Fenway Park.
Then everything changed.
After pitching well in Triple-A and finally reaching Pittsburgh, Bullington appeared in just one game before suffering a serious shoulder injury. Surgery wiped out his entire 2006 season.
He returned in 2007 and went 11-9 with a 4.00 ERA in Triple-A, but his September opportunity in Pittsburgh produced an 0-3 record and 5.29 ERA.
Bullington later pitched for Cleveland, Toronto and Kansas City, but the former No. 1 overall selection finished his Major League career with exactly one victory.
#8 Brooks Kieschnick, Outfielder/Pitcher
Long before Shohei Ohtani became a two-way superstar, Brooks Kieschnick arrived as one of college baseball’s most fascinating talents.
At the University of Texas, Kieschnick could dominate from either side of the ball. He hit .360 with 43 home runs and 215 RBIs and went 34-8 with a 3.05 ERA as a pitcher.
He became the first player to win the Dick Howser Trophy twice.
The Chicago Cubs selected Kieschnick 10th overall in 1993 and faced an intriguing decision: hitter, pitcher, or both?
Chicago chose his bat.
For a while, that looked like the right call. Kieschnick moved through the minors while hitting for average and power. In 1995, he batted .295 with 23 home runs and a .370 on-base percentage for Triple-A Iowa.
His 1996 Major League debut was even more encouraging. Kieschnick went 10-for-29, good for a .345 average, and hit his first big-league home run.
A regular role appeared to be waiting for him.
Instead, they sent him back to minor-league camp near the end of spring training in 1997. When he eventually returned to Chicago, he hit only .200 in 90 at-bats.
Tampa Bay selected him in the expansion draft but never called him up. He later joined Cincinnati and went hitless in 12 at-bats in 2000.
Then his career took a strange turn.
Milwaukee allowed Kieschnick to pitch again, and during the 2003 and 2004 seasons he became a useful bullpen arm who could also hit. In 2003, he even batted .300 with seven home runs.
It was an unusual second act, but it didn’t last. Kieschnick never appeared in another Major League game after 2004.
#7 Danny Goodwin, Catcher/First Baseman/DH
Danny Goodwin owns a distinction that may never be duplicated: he was selected first overall in the MLB Draft twice.
The Chicago White Sox first took Goodwin out of high school with the No. 1 pick in 1971. He declined to sign and instead attended Southern University in Baton Rouge.
Four years later, his stock was somehow even higher.
Goodwin became a three-time All-American and the 1975 College Player of the Year. He hit .408 with a staggering .543 on-base percentage and 1.271 OPS.
When the California Angels held the first pick in 1975, Goodwin went No. 1 again. This time, he signed for a record $150,000 bonus.
Then came a development plan that, in retrospect, did him few favors.
Goodwin went straight to Double-A and hit .275 with two home runs. After only 46 minor-league games, California promoted him to the majors.
He went 1-for-10 with five strikeouts.
The Angels responded by sending him back to Class-A in 1976. Goodwin continued producing in the minors, eventually batting .305 with 10 home runs in 77 Triple-A games in 1977.
Nearly two years after his first Major League appearance, he returned to California. This time, he hit .209 in 91 at-bats with one home run.
Despite being drafted as a catcher, Goodwin wasn’t developed as one in the majors. The Angels primarily used him as a designated hitter and pinch hitter.
He later played a part-time role with Minnesota and spent several years in Oakland’s organization, but his Major League career never gained momentum.
For someone talented enough to be chosen first overall twice, Goodwin’s career remains one of baseball’s most remarkable draft disappointments. His handling by the Angels, particularly the rush to the majors, remains an important part of that story.
#6 David Clyde, Pitcher
If there is one cautionary tale about rushing a teenage pitcher to the Major Leagues, David Clyde might be it.
Clyde was a sensational high school pitcher who drew comparisons to Sandy Koufax. When the Texas Rangers earned the first selection in the 1973 draft after losing 100 games the previous season, Clyde was the obvious choice.
Texas signed him for a record $125,000 bonus.
Then the Rangers made an extraordinary decision.
Instead of sending Clyde to the minor leagues, the organization arranged for him to make two Major League starts before beginning normal professional development.
His first start produced something the struggling franchise badly needed: a sellout.
Rangers owner Bob Short saw what Clyde could do at the ticket window and kept him in the majors.
Clyde finished his rookie season 4-8 with a 5.01 ERA despite never throwing a single minor-league inning. Billy Martin later became Texas manager and reportedly argued that Clyde needed minor-league development, but the young pitcher remained in the majors and went 3-9 with a 4.38 ERA in 1974.
Those numbers weren’t disastrous for someone pitching against Major League hitters right out of high school.
But by the time Clyde finally reached the minors in 1975, he had already hurt his shoulder.
He was never the same.
Clyde underwent surgery and bounced between the minors and majors, including opportunities with Cleveland, but never developed into the pitcher scouts expected.
He retired with an 18-33 record and 4.63 ERA.
The unanswered question is impossible to ignore: what happens if David Clyde receives the normal development afforded almost every other teenage pitching prospect?
#5 Shawn Abner, Outfielder
The New York Mets entered the 1984 draft believing Shawn Abner could become part of a tremendous young outfield.
They already had Darryl Strawberry. Billy Beane was moving toward the majors. Abner was viewed as an all-around, can’t-miss prospect.
So New York selected him first overall.
Among the players still available was USC slugger Mark McGwire.
Abner hit for respectable averages in the minors, but the expected power never developed. Before he could establish himself with New York, the Mets included him in the eight-player trade that brought Kevin McReynolds from San Diego and sent Kevin Mitchell to the Padres.
Abner made his Major League debut with San Diego in 1987.
His bat never came around.
He hit .181 in 1988 and .187 in 1989, without enough power to compensate for those averages. Abner’s final Major League season came in 1992, when he hit .279 with one home run.
Injuries ultimately prevented him from returning.
The former first overall selection was finished in the majors before his 27th birthday.
Years later, Abner made headlines for a far different and disturbing reason. In 2020, he was sentenced to 4½ to 23 months in prison in an animal-cruelty case after leaving his dog unattended at home for more than a month. The dog died.
#4 Steve Chilcott, Catcher
Shawn Abner wasn’t even the Mets’ most painful first-overall selection.
That distinction belongs to Steve Chilcott.
The 1966 draft produced Ron Cey, Steve Garvey and Charlie Hough. Three of its first four selections became Major League All-Stars.
The second overall pick was Reggie Jackson.
With the first pick, New York selected Chilcott, a left-handed-hitting catcher from Antelope Valley High School in Lancaster, California.
Chilcott had a quick bat and considerable offensive potential, and he began displaying it in the minor leagues. In Single-A, he batted .290 with a .365 on-base percentage and drove in 45 runs through 79 games.
Then one ordinary baseball play changed everything.
Chilcott dove back into first base on a pickoff attempt, jammed his hand into the bag, and dislocated his shoulder.
His season was over.
When he returned the following year, Chilcott hit just .189 at Visalia. More physical problems followed, and the player who took one spot ahead of Reggie Jackson never recovered enough to reach the majors.
Chilcott remains one of only a handful of first overall MLB Draft selections who never played a Major League game.
After baseball, he became a firefighter and later worked as a contractor building and remodeling homes.
#3 Al Chambers, Outfielder/DH
The Seattle Mariners have enjoyed spectacular results with the first overall pick. Ken Griffey Jr. became one of baseball’s greatest players. Alex Rodriguez became one of its most accomplished hitters. Mike Moore put together a solid 14-year Major League career.
Then there was Al Chambers.
Seattle lost 104 games in 1978 and received the first selection in the 1979 draft. The Mariners used it on Chambers, a 6-foot-4, 217-pound outfielder from John Harris High School in Pennsylvania.
Chambers appeared to have everything: speed, power, defensive ability, and tremendous physical size.
And unlike several players on this list, he performed in the minor leagues.
With San Jose, Chambers hit .301 with a .388 on-base percentage. The next season he hit 20 home runs in Double-A. At Triple-A Salt Lake City, he hit .331 and drove in 75 runs in just 99 games.
When Seattle finally called him up, Chambers drove in four runs in his Major League debut.
But the transition wasn’t comfortable.
“The veterans on the team didn’t take me under their wing,” Chambers later said. “It was a tough situation for me. I talked to other rookies in the league who told me how the veterans showed them the ropes, but it never happened in Seattle.”
Chambers hit .209 in 67 at-bats in 1983 before returning to the minors. He hit .225 in the majors in 1984.
The following season was particularly frustrating. Chambers hit .308 with a .402 on-base percentage in Triple-A but received only four Major League at-bats.
No catastrophic injury or major scandal. The opportunity disappeared.
“You only get so many breaks,” Chambers said.
His Major League career ended after only 57 games. Chambers later worked the swing shift at a Hershey Foods factory in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
#2 Adam Johnson, Pitcher
Minnesota originally drafted Adam Johnson out of high school in 1997, but the right-hander chose college instead.
At Cal State Fullerton, that decision paid off.
Johnson set a school record with 365 strikeouts and earned Big West Conference Pitcher of the Year honors. In 2000 alone, he struck out 166 hitters in 119 innings.
Three years after first selecting him, Minnesota drafted Johnson again.
This time, the Twins used the second overall pick.
Only Adrian Gonzalez was selected ahead of him.
Johnson immediately showed his strikeout ability against professional hitters. In 69 innings for Single-A Fort Myers, he struck out 92 and posted a 2.47 ERA.
Minnesota moved him aggressively through its system in 2001, and Johnson reached the Major Leagues that same year.
That’s where the trajectory abruptly changed.
He surrendered 23 runs in 25 innings and struck out only 17 batters.
Johnson failed to make the Major League roster out of spring training in 2002. According to former Twins player Michael Cuddyer, Johnson crumpled up his assignment papers and stormed out of the manager’s office after learning he had been sent down.
He pitched only two more Major League games.
Johnson continued trying to keep his career alive in the minors and independent baseball through 2009, but he never returned to the majors.
For the No. 2 overall selection, his final Major League numbers were stunning: nine appearances, 26⅓ innings and a 10.25 ERA.
#1 Brien Taylor, Pitcher
Brien Taylor wasn’t merely the first overall pick in 1991.
He was considered one of the most overpowering high school pitchers anyone had ever seen.
The New York Yankees selected Taylor first overall and eventually signed him for $1.55 million, an enormous bonus at the time. Scott Boras served as his adviser and, years later, still remembered Taylor’s amateur talent in extraordinary terms.
“Brien Taylor, to this day, is still the best high school pitcher I’ve seen in my life,” Boras said in 2006.
It wasn’t difficult to understand why.
Taylor could touch triple digits with his fastball. As a high school senior, he struck out 213 of the 264 batters he faced while walking only 28.
Professional hitters didn’t slow him down right away.
At High-A Fort Lauderdale in 1992, Taylor struck out 187 hitters in 161 innings and posted a 2.57 ERA. He advanced to Double-A in 1993 and went 13-7 with a 3.48 ERA.
Everything appeared to be proceeding normally. A Major League debut in the near future seemed entirely realistic.
Then came December 13, 1993.
During the offseason, Taylor became involved in a fight while defending his brother and severely injured his pitching shoulder.
He required major surgery and missed the entire 1994 season.
When Taylor finally returned, the pitcher who had overwhelmed hitters with elite velocity was gone. His fastball had reportedly dropped by roughly eight miles per hour, and worse, his command disappeared.
The numbers were brutal.
Taylor went 0-5 with an 18.73 ERA and walked 43 hitters in only 16⅓ innings at Single-A.
He never recovered.
The Yankees eventually released him, and Taylor left professional baseball without ever throwing a pitch in the Major Leagues. Afterward, he worked for UPS and as a beer distributor. He later served more than three years in federal prison after pleading guilty to distributing crack cocaine.
That leaves one of baseball’s great unanswered prospect questions.
Taylor had already reached Double-A and possessed the kind of raw stuff that made veteran baseball observers speak about him decades later. Then one offseason fight destroyed his shoulder, his velocity, and ultimately his path to Yankee Stadium.
Of all the players on this list, nobody represents the uncertainty of the MLB Draft quite like Brien Taylor. The first overall pick went from one of the most feared young pitchers in America to never appearing in a single Major League game.
