Let’s talk about the Atlanta Braves — a team that somehow during the 2025 season still managed to win a few games despite their rotation getting shredded like a tax form in an audit. I’m referring to the 71 players used in a single season. Seventy-one! That’s not a baseball roster, that’s a Broadway cast. And out of those, 46 were pitchers. Two of them were position players! At this point, the bullpen phone was probably just forwarding to the clubhouse like, “Hey, you throw in high school? You’re up.”
The Braves’ Rotation Didn’t Just Break — It Vaporized
But let’s get serious for a second, because this wasn’t just a numbers gimmick. This was the fallout of one of the most brutal seasons for pitcher health any team has experienced in years. All five Opening Day starters hit the 60-day IL. That’s not a coincidence, that’s an apocalypse. So, when President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos calls the rotation a “front burner” issue, that burner’s boiling over.
The Braves aren’t exactly known for splurging in free agency. In fact, the high-water mark for a true free agent deal under Anthopoulos is checking notes Reynaldo López’s 3-year, $30M contract. That’s a mid-reliever deal on the Yankees. So if you’re hoping for some big-time name like Dylan Cease or Zac Gallen to stroll into Truist Park on a $150M deal — pump the brakes. Anthopoulos doesn’t usually shop in that aisle. He’s a bargain bin browser. He’s got a Costco mindset in a luxury boutique league.
Cease vs. Gallen: Bet on the Fireballer, Not the Finesse
But let’s focus about those names anyway, because they’re going to be all over Braves Twitter this winter. Cease? Electric stuff. Fastball averaging 97.1 mph. Still punching tickets with that absurd 11.5 K/9, even in a “down” year. His ERA might’ve ballooned to 4.55, but the underlying metrics? Expected ERA was 3.47. That’s a huge gap. You could chalk it up to bad luck, poor defense, maybe even the pitching environment in San Diego. But here’s the kicker — velocity ages better than finesse. That’s not a hot take, that’s data. Baseball America backed it up. Hard throwers might break down, but soft tossers just fade away. If you’re gambling short-term, you bet on the arm that’s still bringing heat.
Now, Zac Gallen, I love the guy’s pitch mix. But 93.5 mph is pedestrian these days. He’s crafty, yes, but he’s also coming off a career-worst year in ERA, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. If you’re the Braves and you have to take a short-term swing, you’re looking at Cease — maybe on a one-year, prove-it deal. That “pillow contract” idea. And maybe you even squeeze him in at $22-25M AAV. That’s palatable, even for Atlanta’s notoriously thrifty front office.
Now let’s be clear — this front office has offered real money before. Six years, $162M to Aaron Nola. Five years, $140M to Freddie Freeman. But neither signed. So the offers can happen. They just haven’t landed yet. Maybe that changes this offseason. Maybe Anthopoulos feels the heat and takes the plunge.
Outside the Big Four, the Market Gets Murky Fast
It’s a weak market for velocity currently. Ranger Suárez sits 90.5. Chris Bassitt? 91.5. Shane Bieber’s hanging around at 92.6. Woodruff is 93 even. Not terrible, but not elite. Framber Valdez might be the best velocity-to-consistency combo, sitting around 94.2, and he’s a lefty with some postseason clout. But if velocity really is king, then Cease may be the best rental in the shop.
So here’s the million-dollar question: Can Anthopoulos stick to his bargain strategy while plugging the Titanic-sized holes in this rotation? Because if the Braves are going to compete deep into October again, they can’t do it with duct tape and dreams. They need arms — durable, fireballing, dependable arms.
