When Austin Riley burst onto the scene in 2019, Braves fans hoped he could fill the void left by Chipper Jones. By 2021, that dream looked real. Riley became one of the best third basemen in baseball, helping drive the Braves’ World Series run and earning two Silver Sluggers along the way.
The Braves rewarded him with a 10-year, $212 million extension in 2022 — a massive bet that Riley’s prime would last. For a while, it looked like a bargain. But over the past two seasons, that investment hasn’t looked quite as rosy.
Riley’s production dips after three elite seasons
From 2021 through 2023, Riley was a cornerstone in Atlanta’s lineup. He hit .286/.354/.525 with 104 doubles, 108 home runs, and 297 RBI across 478 games, good for an 18.8 WAR and 135 wRC+ (FanGraphs). He finished in the top 10 of MVP voting twice and looked like a perennial All-Star.
But the 2024 and 2025 seasons told a different story. Injuries and inconsistency crept in, and his performance dropped to .258/.316/.445 with 46 doubles, 35 homers, and 110 RBI combined. His 111 wRC+ over that span made him closer to an above-average bat — not the elite slugger Atlanta paid for.
His strikeout-to-walk ratio has also been a red flag. Over 916 plate appearances the last two seasons, Riley walked just 64 times while striking out 246 times. That’s roughly a 26.8% strikeout rate with only a 7% walk rate — numbers that limit his on-base impact even when the power returns.
Injuries and inconsistency cloud the picture
Like much of Atlanta’s lineup, Riley dealt with nagging injuries through 2024 and 2025, including a pair of extended absences that cut into his rhythm and production. While none of that is his fault, the availability gap has made the $22 million AAV feel steeper.
He still has seven years remaining on his deal, with a club option for 2033, giving the Braves plenty of time to recoup value. But as of now, the contract looks like a gamble — one that hasn’t paid off the way the team envisioned when Riley was peaking in his mid-20s.
The path back to Braves stardom
There’s no question that Riley remains one of the best pure hitters in baseball when healthy. His exit velocity and barrel rate (Baseball Savant) continue to rank near the top of the league, and he’s shown the ability to make adjustments before.
For the Braves, getting Riley back to his 2021–23 form is vital. He’s a lineup anchor and clubhouse leader, and a rebound season in 2026 would go a long way toward restoring confidence in the long-term deal.
If he can stay healthy and reestablish his discipline at the plate, Riley could easily remind everyone why Atlanta locked him up so early. But for now, that once-perfect extension looks a little more uncertain than it did just two years ago.
