The Brink of Disaster in Los Angeles
The Atlanta Braves are staring down a nightmare scenario. After a 5-3 loss in the first game of the NLDS, the pressure is on. If the Braves lose again on Sunday, they face a hole that is almost impossible to climb out of. The stats prove it. Teams that fall behind 2-0 in a five-game series win that series only 11% of the time. In fact, under the current rules, teams losing the first two games on the road have won the series just three times in 36 tries.
The Dodgers are sitting pretty right now. They won the opener and now have a chance to take a commanding lead. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts knows the value of this momentum. “To win Game 1 is certainly important, very important,” Roberts said, according to MLB.com Braves. He added, “… We’re in a good spot. It all starts with winning Game 1.” Now, the Dodgers just need one more win to put the Braves in a corner.
Pitching Uncertainty and the Snell Threat
The Braves’ rotation is set for Sunday. Ray Kerr in Game 2 and Chris Sale gets Game 3 on extra rest. The 37-year-old pitcher is coming off a heavy workload. To conclude that series, he delivered 95 pitches versus the Phillies on Tuesday, then threw 21 additional ones on Thursday.
On the other side, the Dodgers have a clear weapon in Blake Snell. The lefty is a strikeout machine with an 11.6 K/9 rate, which ranks 6th among MLB starters with at least 40 innings pitched. He was dominant in the postseason last October with a 0.86 ERA. However, he struggled in the World Series, giving up five earned runs in each of his starts. He is coming off a regular season limited to nine starts due to shoulder and elbow issues, but he feels good heading into this matchup.
Stats That Matter
- Series Trend: 89% of teams taking 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series go on to win the series.
- Dodgers Lead: 1-0 in the NLDS after a 5-3 Game 1 win.
- Snell’s Strikeout Rate: 11.6 K/9 (6th in MLB).
- Historical Trend: Teams losing Games 1 and 2 on the road have comeback to win just 3 of 36 Division Series.
Can Atlanta Find the Spark?
I don’t care about the “special” talk. I care about results. That is the only way to look at it. You cannot win a championship by being “special” in August; you win it by winning the games in front of you.
The Braves have some individual bright spots to lean on. Sean Murphy has been hot, hitting a double and a home run in his first six postseason at-bats. He also has a career history of success against Snell, going 3-for-8 with a home run and a double against him.
