Here we go again. The Atlanta Braves are closing in on another trip to the MLB postseason, but simply getting there might be the easy part.
After a disastrous 2025 season that ended without a playoff appearance, Atlanta has put itself back in contention in 2026. A win over the Chicago Cubs reduced the Braves’ magic number for a postseason berth to three, while their magic number to secure the division sits at five.
Nothing is official yet, and that distinction matters. Atlanta spent much of the season positioned for a first-round bye. Missing the playoffs altogether from here would represent the most damaging possible outcome.
A Phillies Wild Card MLB matchup comes with a warning
Assuming the Braves do get in, however, several things could still go wrong.
One possibility would see Atlanta tumble all the way to the sixth seed and draw the Philadelphia Phillies, the third seed, in the Wild Card round. The Braves have gone 9-4 against Philadelphia so far this season, but recent history reminds us that regular-season success doesn’t necessarily carry over into October.
Atlanta went 8-5 against Philadelphia during the 2023 regular season. When the teams met in the NLDS, the Phillies eliminated the Braves in four games.
That makes Philadelphia dangerous regardless of what the 2026 head-to-head numbers say. The Braves know from experience that beating the Phillies consistently from April through September doesn’t guarantee the same result once a postseason series begins.
The Padres present an even bigger problem
Then there is San Diego.
The Padres have consistently caused problems for Atlanta in recent seasons. Including postseason games, the Braves are just 10-20 against San Diego since 2023. That stretch includes Atlanta’s two-game sweep by the Padres in the 2024 Wild Card round.
The pattern has continued in 2026, with Atlanta going 3-4 against San Diego.
That creates an unusual possibility. The Braves could successfully finish the job, win their division and secure the third seed, only to immediately run into a Padres team that has repeatedly given them trouble. If the postseason began with the current standings, that is exactly the matchup Atlanta would get.
At least one potentially favorable element lies farther down the bracket. Either Wild Card scenario could put Atlanta on a path toward the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, and the Braves have performed well against Los Angeles this year, winning five of their six meetings.
The clubs also have some postseason history. The last time Atlanta faced Los Angeles in October, the Braves defeated the Dodgers in the 2021 NLCS before winning the World Series.
But none of that matters if Atlanta cannot survive the opening round.
Braves still have a path to a first-round bye
That’s why the remaining regular-season games carry consequences beyond simply clinching a playoff berth. Seeding could dramatically change Atlanta’s route through October.
The cleanest route would be to overtake Los Angeles for the National League’s second seed. Doing so would give Atlanta a first-round bye and remove the immediate danger of a Wild Card matchup. It could also put the Dodgers and Padres on a collision course in that opening round.
San Diego has gone 3-7 against Los Angeles this season, making that potential matchup particularly relevant from Atlanta’s perspective.
For now, though, the Braves haven’t secured anything. They’re close to returning to October after missing out entirely in 2025. Still, their eventual seed could determine whether that return begins with a bye or an immediate matchup against one of the teams that has already caused them plenty of trouble.
