Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season numbers don’t exactly scream vintage Acuña. The Atlanta Braves star is hitting .259, and both his exit velocity and hard-hit rate have fallen to career lows. Taken at face value, those numbers suggest a hitter who hasn’t quite been himself.
But the season totals hide what’s been happening lately.
If Acuña can get past the left shin contusion he suffered Tuesday night after fouling a ball off himself at the plate—an injury that currently has him considered day-to-day—he could enter October looking considerably more dangerous than his overall numbers suggest.
Pitchers Found a Hole in Acuña’s Swing
The change became noticeable around mid-August. After spending time on the injured list twice, Acuña needed time to regain his timing. As some of that rust began to disappear, so did one of the weaknesses pitchers had been exploiting.
High fastballs had been giving him trouble.
Pitchers found success attacking Acuña with velocity up and over his hands. His barrel was working underneath the plane of those pitches, leaving him vulnerable in an area where pitchers increasingly knew they could challenge him.
That approach isn’t working nearly as well anymore.
Acuña has adjusted his swing path, flattening his attack angle and putting himself in a better position to reach fastballs at the top of the strike zone. Instead of repeatedly swinging beneath elevated velocity, he is getting his barrel into the pitch’s path.
One Adjustment Changes the Braves October Equation
That is an important development heading into the postseason.
October baseball tends to expose weaknesses quickly. Pitching staffs have scouting reports, high-velocity arms, and little reason to abandon a strategy that keeps producing outs. If Acuña had continued struggling against elevated fastballs, opposing pitchers would have had every incentive to keep attacking him there.
Now the calculation is different.
The encouraging part isn’t simply that Acuña has been producing better results since mid-August. It’s that an identifiable mechanical adjustment is behind those results. He recognized how pitchers were attacking him and changed the way his barrel approaches those pitches.
That makes Acuña one of the more intriguing candidates to finish a disappointing individual season on a much stronger note.
First, Acuña Has to Get Healthy
The Braves don’t necessarily need the version of Acuña suggested by his season-long averages. They need the hitter who has emerged after working his way back from those IL stints—the one who can once again punish pitchers who try to beat him with velocity upstairs.
The immediate question is his shin. A contusion this close to October is hardly ideal, particularly for a player whose explosiveness is such a major part of his game.
But if Acuña can get healthy enough to stay in the lineup, pitchers may discover that one of their most reliable ways to attack him has disappeared at exactly the wrong time.
