The Atlanta Braves made a series of moves by locking up many of their young stars from the 2021 World Series roster. It was part of their long-term strategy to keep the core of the team together. However, one decision still stands out: the Braves did not re-sign hometown hero and shortstop Dansby Swanson when he hit free agency.
Swanson was born in Georgia and played at Marietta High School. It is tough not to like a player just a little bit more when they are homegrown playing for their home team. A noticeable void was left in the hearts of many local fans when he signed with the Chicago Cubs.
For some, seeing Swanson leave was painful, given his deep local roots and his contributions to the Braves success. However, looking at the situation in hindsight, the Braves may have avoided a tough long-term scenario.
According to Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer, the Braves shouldn’t feel too bad about not bringing Swanson back into the fold. In fact, Rymer singled out Swanson’s contract with the Cubs as one of MLB’s potential nightmare deals that won’t expire until after 2026.
Swanson’s performance prior to his free agency seemed solid. Over a three-year stretch, he posted a .775 OPS and averaged 26 home runs per 162 games, prompting the Cubs to offer him a seven-year, $177 million deal.
Swanson lived up to those numbers in his first year with Chicago in 2023, but things took a dip in 2024. His OPS slid to .701, and he managed just 16 home runs. This is far fewer than his prime numbers. Rymer pointed out concerning trends such as an increase in Swanson’s ground-ball rate and diminishing carry on his fly balls. These declines raise significant concerns about his long-term value at the plate given that power is one of Swanson’s key offensive attributes.
Dansby Swanson still remains one of the best in the game defensively, however. With 60 Outs Above Average over the past three seasons, he ranks as one of MLB’s top defenders. However, as Rymer notes, by 2026, even stellar defense may not be enough to justify his contract if his offensive output continues to slide.
Swanson’s peak came during his 2022 season with the Braves when he earned his first All-Star nod and hit .277 with 25 home runs and 96 RBIs, playing all 162 games. That season, particularly his surge from late April to early August, helped him land the massive deal with Chicago.
But after a solid 2023, his offensive production began to dip in 2024. His 16 home runs were the fewest he’s hit in a full season since 2018. This raised questions about whether this downward trend is temporary or here to stay.
While Swanson’s defense continues to shine, his bat has become a question mark for the Cubs. Whether he can rebound in 2025 remains to be seen. Even players like Matt Olson, who experienced a slight drop in power during 2024, could bounce back to elite levels in the future.
From a financial standpoint, it looks like the Braves made the right move by not re-signing Dansby Swanson for now. They secured their future with other key players and dodged what might become a major contract issue for the Cubs.
