The Luck Has Turned Sour
Nature is healing, but it feels like a cruel joke for Atlanta right now. The Braves have sauntered to a lofty record despite mediocre production, yet they are getting absolutely ravaged by baseball’s luck dragons. Per Battery Power, the team is facing a karmic smackdown that could cost them the division lead. The stats show a brutal disconnect between what should happen and what is actually happening on the field.
In the first game, the Braves actually out-xwOBAed the Rays with a .334 mark against the Rays’ .326. A .156 wOBA was all they produced, whereas the Rays surged to a .426 wOBA. That was the Braves’ biggest xwOBA under performance of the entire year. The Rays outhit their own xwOBA by .100 in that single game, a feat that didn’t even make their top ten over performances for the season.
The second game was nearly a repeat of the first disaster. The Braves put forth a .336 xWoba but managed only a .197 wOBA. The Rays out-xwOBAed them at .347, but they absolutely crushed the Braves with a .339 wOBA. If the universe is trying to set things right because the Braves lead the division while sliding in production, the rest of the season is going to suck.
Perez Is The Weak Link
Martín Pérez is coming off his worst pitching of the year, and the media narrative blames extra rest. That story is nonsense. In 23 outings, this marked the eighth instance where he issued more walks than strikeouts. This is just the normal end of the gamut for a pitcher like Perez, not a fluke caused by a day off.
Pérez has reached 124 1/3 innings this season along with a 1.2 fWAR. He has posted a 78/104/104 line for ERA, FIP, and xFIP. He has performed adequately, supported by a defense that effectively stops runs behind him. Given the series trajectory, the Rays could easily bloop and bleeder-ed him to death, leaving him extremely vulnerable. He exited after 3 2/3 innings of work against the Phillies before this matchup.
The third-lowest grounder rate of the year paired with his command issues is why he got knocked around. Nick Martinez poses a challenge for the Braves as they attempt to prevent a home sweep. Martinez has had a weird year with 2.6 fWAR in 160 innings, but his 73/95/108 line tells a different story about his underlying performance.
Stop Blaming The Universe
We cannot keep hoping the luck dragons will turn around on their own. For some time, the team has endured prolonged xWoba under performances, which are terrible each and every time. If this is how the universe sets things to rights for a team that is leading the division but lacks real production, the rest of the season is going to be a long, painful grind.
The Rays’ defensive positioning is sublime in this series, and the Braves have no one to blame but themselves for not adjusting. It is not just bad luck when you cannot convert good contact into runs. The offense must wake up and stop letting the Rays out-hit their own expected metrics.
If this trend persists, the remainder of the season will suuuuuuuck. The team has suffered from prolonged xWoba under performances for a while, and it is awful every single time. To avoid falling to just two games ahead of the Phillies in the division before a weekend series, the Braves must repair their offense.
